10
Big Log
6yo Gelding · 8-5 · Draw 2
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de l'Etoile Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 1 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-18 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 1-16 · tight 37/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 14/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 04/02/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.29 |
| 14/06/2026 | 13th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.47 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 95% | +0.58 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 94% | +0.13 |