2
Caramelito
7yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 12
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de l'Etoile Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Deauville | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Cholet | 3 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Meydan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Meydan | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 60/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 59% | -0.02 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/12/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/01/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 29% | -0.62 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.32 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |