3
Gerard Ter Borch
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 16
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de l'Etoile Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Deauville | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deauville | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 87% | +0.01 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 87% | -0.01 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 17/03/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 12/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 94% | +0.67 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 62% | -0.15 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 93% | +0.10 |