7
Human Evolution
5yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 18
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de l'Etoile Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
45/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deauville | 2 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Chantilly | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-07 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1871% of fieldRange 9-17 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 03/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 23/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 69% | -0.18 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/08/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 13/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 59% | +0.59 |