6
Johnny Hammer
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 13
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de l'Etoile Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Deauville | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deauville | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Chantilly | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1888% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 10/05/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.58 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 79% | +0.13 |