4
Kovrov
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 11
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de l'Etoile Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Marseille-borely | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 10-18 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength5%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 10/05/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 31/05/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 19% | -0.18 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/09/2026 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |