18
Lakota Beau
4yo Colt · 8-0 · Draw 6
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de l'Etoile Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#16
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Chantilly | 2 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Deauville | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Dieppe | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 11-18 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength7%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 16/03/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 16/04/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 21% | +0.06 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 65% | +0.49 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |