IvyArcIvyArc
17

Serenissimus

4yo Gelding · 8-0 · Draw 15

ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de l'Etoile Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#12

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Fontainebleau 06/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 1236/03C52 @ Chantilly 02/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f207y Hvy 1232/0421 @ Chantilly 31/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 17 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 11831/0512 @ Dieppe 30/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR - · 1m3f204y GS 12730/072C0 @ ParisLongchamp 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR - · 1m1f207y GS 11913/09C?projClass-projected finish: 10th of 18
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13ParisLongchamp?7th7th0
2026-07-30Dieppe27th8th−1
2026-05-31Chantilly116th16th0
2026-04-02Chantilly24th5th−1
2026-03-06Fontainebleau?1st5th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/032/0431/0530/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 11-18 · tight 66/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/03/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
02/04/20264th7/491%70%-0.21
31/05/202616th11/271%6%-0.65
30/07/20267th9/276%60%-0.16
13/09/20267th6/168%65%-0.04