14
Starnberg
4yo Gelding · 8-2 · Draw 5
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de l'Etoile Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#17
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 8th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-08-23 | Deauville | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Vichy | 3 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | 4 | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 2 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 6-18 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength2%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 17th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 01/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 15/03/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 18/05/2026 | 14th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 14/09/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |