IvyArcIvyArc
10

Green Empress

2yo Filly · 0-0

ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Fillies' Group 1) · 0m 7f 209y

#6

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 1.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f Goo 12824/05C81 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f GF 12827/0611 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 12822/0811 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 105 · 7f Yie 128 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 105 par13/091OR 105projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Curragh12nd2nd0
2026-08-22Curragh11st1st−0
2026-06-27Curragh12nd2nd−0
2026-05-24Curragh?2nd11th−8

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0527/0622/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 6-12 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -28.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20262nd33/10%88%+0.88
27/06/20262nd9/153%80%+0.27
22/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
13/09/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04