9
Ibelieveicanfly
2yo Filly · 0-0
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Fillies' Group 1) · 0m 7f 209y
#7
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲5
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -4.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | 1 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Curragh | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 13th | −8 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | ? | 2nd | 11th | −8 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | ? | 4th | 13th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 1/3 | 98% | 63% | -0.36 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |