IvyArcIvyArc
1

Spirit Tango

2yo Filly · 0-0

ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Fillies' Group 1) · 0m 7f 209y

#4

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Yarmouth 18/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 6f3y GF 12818/0644 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f Sta 1288/0742 @ Goodwood 08/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 82 · 7f Sft 132 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 82 par8/092OR 82projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Goodwood21st3rd−2
2026-07-08Kempton41st6th−4
2026-06-18Yarmouth45th10th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/068/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 3-4 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength80%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/06/20265th10/147%56%+0.08
08/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
08/09/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03