7
Alfred Wallace
2yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 104
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) · 6f 211y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 1 | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 20th | 21th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 3 | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/06/2026 | 20th | 12/1 | 37% | 21% | -0.16 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |