5
Crusherman
2yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 1
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) · 6f 211y
#10
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Newbury | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 4 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -19.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |