4
Florida Bay
2yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 106
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | 1 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | ? | 3rd | 12th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 47/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength34%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 4/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |