1
Folsom Blues
2yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 10 · OR 122
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) · 6f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Curragh | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | ? | 1st | 10th | −8 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 12th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 85/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |