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6yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 9 · OR 107

ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 4f 213y

#12

Rank

Odds

60/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 102 · 5f34y GS 129 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 102 par20/091OR 102C1 @ Meydan 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 102 · 5f Yie 128 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 102 parC0 @ Meydan 23/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 102 · 5f Gd 132 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 102 par23/01C?OR 102C1 @ Meydan 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 109 · 6f Gd 130 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 109 parC0 @ Meydan 28/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 109 · 6f Gd 132 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 109 par28/03C?OR 1091 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 26 · OR 109 · 5f GF 133 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 109 par1 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 108 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 108 par18/071OR 1081 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 109 · 5f GS 141 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 109 par1 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 109 · 5f Yie 132 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 109 par13/091OR 109projClass-projected finish: 8th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Curragh19th9th0
2026-08-21York19th9th0
2026-07-18Curragh11st1st−0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot113th13th0
2026-03-28Meydan?8th8th0
2026-02-28Meydan?3rd4th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0928/0218/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength38%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20254th8/158%70%+0.12
19/12/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
23/01/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
28/02/20263rd10/382%86%+0.03
28/03/20268th14/126%30%+0.04
16/06/202613th25/10%52%+0.52
18/07/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
21/08/20269th25/10%53%+0.53
13/09/20269th11/142%50%+0.08