14
Luna A Inbhir Nis
4yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 12 · OR 100
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 4f 213y
#9
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 1 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 1 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 17th | 19th | −2 |
| 2025-09-19 | Ayr | 1 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 2-15 · tight 33/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 19/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 14/05/2026 | 17th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |
| 18/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |