9
Miss Yechance
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 8 · OR 105
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 4f 213y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newbury | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Meydan | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Meydan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 69% | -0.07 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 77% | +0.01 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.33 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |