7
Mission Central
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 5 · OR 112
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 4f 213y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | York | 1 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Naas | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 1-15 · tight 23/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 31/10/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 21/08/2026 | 16th | 8/1 | 58% | 12% | -0.46 |
| 13/09/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 19% | -0.08 |