10
Monteille
5yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 6 · OR 104
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 4f 213y
#13
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 10.4 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | ? | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 24th | 24th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Meydan | ? | 7th | 8th | −0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 10-15 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/06/2025 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 14/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 16/06/2026 | 24th | 66/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 09/08/2026 | 13th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 13/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |