15
Naana's Shadow
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 14 · OR 109
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 4f 213y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 1 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 84/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 11/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |