4
Ponntos
8yo Horse · 9-10 · Draw 1 · OR 105
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 4f 213y
#2
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | 9th | −0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Chantilly | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 8th | 9th | −0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 6-15 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/01/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 28/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 07/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 10/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 13/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |