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3

Redorange

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 15 · OR 107

ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 4f 213y

#7

Rank

Odds

70/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Deauville 10/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 104 · 4f213y GS 123 · beat its mark10/08/2025 · OR 104 par10/08C1OR 1041 @ Beverley 30/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 104 · 5f Goo 128 · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 104 par2 @ Southwell 21/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 102 · 4f214y Sta 136 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 102 par21/092OR 1022 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR 100 · 5f Gd 135 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 100 · 5f21y Goo 133 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 100 par18/052OR 1001 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 108 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 108 par1 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 107 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 107 par11/071OR 1071 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 108 · 5f GS 141 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 108 par1 @ Newbury 19/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 108 · 5f34y GF 129 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 108 par19/091OR 108projClass-projected finish: 10th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newbury16th7th−0
2026-08-21York111th11th0
2026-07-11York11st2nd−1
2026-05-30Carlisle14th5th−1
2026-05-18Windsor21st3rd−2
2026-05-14York28th10th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0814/0511/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 6-15 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength17%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/08/20252nd5/287%90%+0.03
30/08/20258th10/147%13%-0.35
21/09/20257th13/266%54%-0.12
14/05/20268th10/147%65%+0.18
18/05/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
30/05/20264th9/488%57%-0.31
11/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
21/08/202611th25/10%41%+0.41
19/09/20266th3/184%50%-0.34