12
Shiri
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 4
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 4f 213y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Chantilly | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Deauville | 1 | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2025-06-20 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/06/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 03/08/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |