1
Afjan
3yo Colt · 9-10
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 0m 5f 0y
#5
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Chantilly | 1 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.30 |
| 16/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 29/09/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |