2
Corolla Point
4yo Gelding · 9-10
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 0m 5f 0y
#4
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Beverley | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-09-29 | Hamilton | 3 | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 84/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 09/05/2025 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 53% | -0.32 |
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 78% | -0.17 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 92% | +0.03 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 95% | +0.21 |