7
Cover Up
6yo Gelding · 3-13
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 0m 5f 0y
#12
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | York | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Meydan | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 16/06/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 13/09/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |