8
Rumstar
6yo Gelding · 9-10
ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 0m 5f 0y
#8
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | York | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 25th | 25th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 05/10/2025 | 16th | 28/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.11 |
| 16/06/2026 | 25th | 25/1 | 0% | 4% | +0.04 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.24 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |