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3yo Filly · 9-7

ParisLongchamp · Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) · 0m 5f 0y

#2

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ ParisLongchamp 29/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 4f213y Sft 11729/05C5C5 @ Chantilly 20/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12220/06C51 @ Deauville 03/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 1223/0811 @ Chantilly 28/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12228/0411 @ Chantilly 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 12131/051C1 @ Deauville 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 4f213y GS 1209/08C1C1 @ ParisLongchamp 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 4f213y GS 12113/09C1projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13ParisLongchamp?2nd3rd−0
2026-08-09Deauville?1st2nd−1
2026-05-31Chantilly14th5th−1
2026-04-28Chantilly11st2nd−1
2025-08-03Deauville15th6th−0
2025-06-20Chantilly?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0528/0413/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 53/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
20/06/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
03/08/20255th11/486%20%-0.66
28/04/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
31/05/20264th9/488%67%-0.21
09/08/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
13/09/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42