12
Lacaro Du Croate
5yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 3
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Arabian World Cup (Arab Group 1) · 1m 1f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
88%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | RMG Extras | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Pau | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-20 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-07-12 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2024 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 04/10/2024 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 04/01/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 13/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |