7
Bay City Roller
4yo Colt · 9-5 · Draw 15 · OR 119
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) · 1m 3f 204y
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-10-19 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 8-16 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 26/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 07/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |