12
Benvenuto Cellini
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 123
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) · 1m 3f 204y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Chester | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Doncaster | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Leopardstown | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 12-16 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 14/07/2025 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 4/6 | 96% | 33% | -0.63 |