13
Bright Light
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 8
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) · 1m 3f 204y
#14
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Strasbourg | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 4-4 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +27.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |