3
Chestnut Rocket
4yo Colt · 9-5 · Draw 2
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) · 1m 3f 204y
#13
Rank
Odds
200/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Deauville | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Toulouse | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 1-16 · tight 22/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength51%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |