10
Friendly Soul
5yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 115
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) · 1m 3f 204y
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Haydock | 1 | −1 | ||
| 2024-10-06 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 6-16 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2023 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/05/2024 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 15/05/2024 | 7th | 8/11 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 27/07/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/08/2024 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/10/2024 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |