9
Kalpana
5yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 125
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) · 1m 3f 204y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 1.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ascot | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 26/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 05/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |