14
Maltese Cross
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 11 · OR 124
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) · 1m 3f 204y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 1.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | York | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-25 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 82/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |