2
Saddadd
4yo Colt · 9-5 · Draw 9 · OR 118
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) · 1m 3f 204y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Sandown | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Goodwood | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Sandown | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-05-17 | Newbury | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 15-16 · tight 88/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2024 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 26/02/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 11/04/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 17/05/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 18/5 | 81% | 67% | -0.14 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |