15
Thundering On
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 117
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) · 1m 3f 204y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Leopardstown | ? | 2nd | 11th | −8 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 62/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 93% | -0.01 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 57% | -0.37 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |