11
Varandir
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 4
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) · 1m 3f 204y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 1.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 60/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |