1
Marvelman
4yo Colt · 9-2 · Draw 4 · OR 117
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Foret (Group 1) · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | York | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ascot | 1 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Doncaster | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 32/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 18/10/2025 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 90% | +0.35 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 85% | +0.79 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |