5
Nighttime
3yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 1
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Foret (Group 1) · 6f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 2/11 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 06/07/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 58% | -0.02 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |