4
Thesecretadversary
3yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 5 · OR 114
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Foret (Group 1) · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Leopardstown | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 2nd | 2/13 | 99% | 75% | -0.24 |
| 08/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |