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Fibonaccis Ride

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 98

Santa Anita · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

36%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 02/02/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 86 par2/02C6OR 86C6 @ Santa Anita 27/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 80 parC6 @ Santa Anita 22/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 85 · 6f110y Fm 122 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 85 par22/03C6OR 85C8 @ Santa Anita 02/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 79 parC6 @ Santa Anita 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 88 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 88 par2/05C6OR 88C6 @ Santa Anita 31/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 92 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 92 parC6 @ Del Mar 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 95 par27/07C6OR 95C5 @ Del Mar 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 96 · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 96 parC0 @ Del Mar 08/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 101 · 1m1f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 101 par8/09C?OR 101projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Del Mar?7th1st+5
2026-08-15Del Mar?1st0th+1
2026-07-27Del Mar?1st1st0
2026-05-31Santa Anita?2nd2nd0
2026-05-02Santa Anita?2nd2nd0
2026-04-02Santa Anita?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/022/0427/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/02/202613th20/10%0%0.00
27/02/20264th25/10%67%+0.67
22/03/202610th9/153%10%-0.43
02/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
02/05/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40
31/05/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12
27/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
15/08/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
08/09/20267th33/10%33%+0.33