2
Lady Rider
4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 97
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |