4
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5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 98
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-28 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 25/05/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 01/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 24/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |