6
Known Idea
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 109
Santa Anita · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 29/12/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 19/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |