Lyle The Crocodile
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 110
Santa Anita · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2025-11-30 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 19/07/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |