Danzig Til Dawn
5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 62
Santa Anita · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Del Mar | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Santa Anita | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-02-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-01-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 31/01/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 29/03/2025 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 08/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 06/03/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |